Five of the big six railroads show traffic declines for year to date

Five of the big six railroads show traffic declines for year to date

By Bill Stephens | April 6, 2023

It’s a slow start to the year with imports down, retail inventories high, consumer spending down, and a decline in industrial output

Norfolk Southern merchandise trains pass at Cassandra, Pa., on the former Pennsylvania Railroad main line, in April 2022. NS’s merchandise volume was up in the first quarter of 2023. Bill Stephens

Of the big six Class I railroads, only Canadian Pacific’s traffic volume was in positive territory for the first quarter. But that was due to favorable comparisons with last year’s first quarter, when a March labor dispute in Canada shut down CP’s operations for two days.

The best the other railroads could do during the quarter was a nearly 1% decline in traffic at Norfolk Southern, according to a review of the railroads’ weekly carload reports.

Canadian National’s volume was down 1.3%, CSX Transportation was off by 1.7%, and Union Pacific saw a 2% volume decline.

BNSF Railway was in the basement: Its volume dropped 11%, propelled by an 18% decline in intermodal volume. BNSF’s intermodal slump was deepened by the impact of the Jan. 1 loss of Schneider domestic intermodal business to rival UP, whose intermodal traffic was down just 3%.

CP’s volume was up 8.6%, a reflection of the two-day lockout itself and the impact of shippers preemptively shifting traffic away from CP in anticipation of a strike last year.

All of the railroads benefited from a rise in auto parts and finished vehicle traffic. Auto production has risen as the pandemic-related computer chip shortage has eased.

CN and CP both saw their Canadian grain traffic surge due to a combination of a good crop and comparisons with the prior year’s lackluster harvest.

In the East, CSX and NS both saw carload growth driven by shipments of coal, grain, and stone and sand. Carload traffic was down in the West, as both BNSF and UP saw declines.

Total U.S. carload traffic for the first three months of 2023 was down 0.3%, while intermodal was down 10.3%, according to the Association of American Railroads. Overall volume was down 5.6%.

North American rail volume fell 3.6% for the quarter, according to the AAR.

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