SEATTLE — At its Sept. 11 meeting, the Sound Transit board enacted principles designed to address the financial issues threatening the system and its projects around the Seattle region. Sound Transit is facing a long-term financial shortfall estimated to be somewhere between $20 and $30 billion, according to local news sources.
The anticipated financial gap, which could approach 25% of Sound Transit’s entire financial plan, includes a $20-$30 billion shortfall relating to system expansion projects, a $4 to $5 billion in decreased revenues, and $5 billion increase in service delivery costs. The extra service funds include new train cars, and projects that would make the system more resilient, including a new crossover track in downtown Seattle.
The funding shortfall announcement is the first comprehensive look at the financial health of the 2016 ST3 plan. It follows last year’s statement that the first major ST3 project to start planning — the West Seattle Link — has seen costs jump from an estimated $4.2 billion to $7.9 billion. The transit system must now gauge how this increase, plus scope and schedule changes will impact bigger ST3 projects, including Everett, Tacoma Dome, and Ballard Link connections. As the board weighs its options, it’s too early to know how those projects might be adjusted or even move forward to fit within Sound Transit’s budget.
The Enterprise Initiative, approved by the Sound Transit Board last week, provides a framework for balancing the long-term financial plan and updating the ST3 Plan and the agency’s Long-Range Plan. The measure sets specific deadlines by which the updates are to be completed:
- Updated System Plan by second quarter 2026
- Adopted Long-Range Plan by third quarter 2026
- Updated Long-Range Financial Plan by fourth quarter 2026
“We have in the past dealt with these challenges by pausing all our work, by cutting lines, by using really just these blunt instruments. We want to do better,” Dow Constantine, Sound Transit CEO, said in a briefing ahead of Thursday’s board meeting. “The Enterprise Initiative is really the framework that allows us to go beyond what we did before, which is just focus on capital and just focus on scope and schedule instead to do the hard work, the innovative work, the careful, meticulous work to save money, to have a better product, to reduce construction impacts, and ultimately, to have a balanced long range financial plan and move forward building a system that people asked us for.”
With the board vote all aspects of the ST3 network buildout are back on the table. This includes the most expensive project, a second downtown Seattle tunnel, this one linking South Downtown and Interbay on the Ballard Link. This second tunnel would play a key capacity role and help maintain consistent frequencies. The entire region would help pay for the project, due to its broad impact.
Claudia Balducci, a King County councilmember, thinks Sound Transit may be acting too quickly to cut projects for savings. She wants the second tunnel and other mega-projects reconsidered.
“I think we need to ask all the big questions, and not shy away from them,” Balducci says. “Do we need the second downtown tunnel? I think we need to ask ourselves that question. It is a major part of the contribution of every subarea in this program. The current plan has been based on assumed constraints on headways and throughput and reliability through the tunnel. Those may continue to maintain, but we also know we have different technology that we have not deployed that could increase reliability and throughput.”
Sound Transit board members have stated in local media that they are still committed to the regional light rail “spine” and the full ST3 network. In the upcoming review, however, tough decisions will pit competing values including ridership, connectivity, and geography against each other. Balducci would also like Sound Transit to develop consistent service delivery standards that the board can use when making decisions and prioritizing projects.
Elected officials are not the only ones speaking about the project delays and cost overruns. Residents along the proposed West Seattle Link, which is now facing a $3 billion price increase, are frustrated.
“It would make things more convenient for sure,” says Heather Hitte, a West Seattle resident who spoke to local media. “Actually, [I could] get to visit my friends out of town, whereas right now it’s unrealistic. It takes so long to get anywhere by bus.”
“We pay taxes. We matter. We deserve to have as [many] services as the rest of the people in Seattle,” stated Connie Burger, regarding the West Seattle Link. Chuck Burger, her husband, added, “Light rail would make it easier to get up to Montlake UW, down to our medical appointments, so it’s really important to us.”
You get what you pay for. Like private entities and individuals, government entities should choose the best contractor for certain projects, not the cheapest. Public institutions are more prone to shoddy construction and utility. Attempts to rectify errors increase expenses.
I experienced first hand as a child the difference between attending a public school and later a Roman Catholic school where I had the best educational experience in a cleaner more disciplined environment.
It seems to me, we rely on the people who claim to understand how much large infrastructure projects should cost.
The problem is they don’t. I was a contracting officer for a state government. And the first thing I learned is that awarding contracts to low bidder isn’t necessarily a good thing.
They bid low to get the contract, and what’s the state going to do when cost overruns happen. Change contractors…not hardly.
Nope, they will try and get the contractor to pick up some of the cost overruns by offering incentives to finish. It’s too costly, and ineffective to suddenly change contractors in the middle of the infrastructure or building project.
Another unanticipated force on the costs of building a light rail. Is the cost of steel. Rarely do contractors think about what the cost of steel will be a year from now. Some market forces cannot be predicted.
Like a POTUS who places tariffs on steel. How can you possibly envision that as a contractor.
Still, Dow Constantine and rest of the board need to be transparent about what it will cost. In today’s dollars to build the light rail, that serves everyone.
Then prove that the system is reliable, and worth riding.
The shortfall appears to consist mostly of future capital projects and future increases of operation and maintenance costs. Seems that current day-to-day operation and maintenance are in reasonably good shape for now.
In other words, Seattle is doing way better (for now) than many other systems nationwide.